thermalben

Large E'ly swells on the way, holding for quite some time

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 26th June)

Best Days: Most days will have plenty of waves for the points; biggest late Sun/Mon/Tues (maybe too big for many spots).

Recap: There's been plenty of surf across all coasts, with building SE swells throughout Far Northern NSW and SE Qld offering 3ft sets across the outer points, and a long period southerly swell building through Tuesday south of the border, reaching 4-5ft at south swell magnets, easing slowly today. Winds have been problematic at exposed coasts and Tuesday saw periods of easterlies, but we’ve seen a broader spread of offshores in Northern NSW today and S’ly winds throughout SE Qld with ideal conditions at protected spots. 

Small peelers at Noosa

Looks like summer, eh? Snapper Rocks

Chunky mix of Wednesday swells on the Tweed Coast

This week (June 27 - 28)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

Looks like more of the same for the next few days. Except the southerly swell is on the way out so expect easing size from this direction throughout Northern NSW. 

Elsewhere, a broad, stationary ridge through the Coral Sea will maintain mid range SE swells for most of SE Qld and Far Northern NSW (with smaller surf as you head south from Yamba). We’ll se a continuation of 2-3ft+ sets of variable quality across the outer points, with larger but more wind affected waves at exposed beaches, such as the northern ends of the Gold and Sunshine Coasts, and most open stretches of the Tweed, Byron and Ballina coasts. 

Winds will generally remain moderate to fresh SE (even E/SE across some regions, mainly the Sunshine Coast), though we’ll see a little lighter strength across the Mid North Coast. And there’s a reasonable chance for pockets of offshore winds - not just early morning, but also associated with passing showery cells. So there'll be lumpy, chunky beachbreaks from time to time if you're prepared to sniff out a window of opportunity.

All in all, it just looks like a fun summer trade swell, but with five extra degrees of wind chill!

This weekend (June 29 - 30)

There's no change to the weekend outlook at this stage.

The ridge will weaken into Saturday, though we’ll still be at risk of onshore E/SE thru’ SE winds on Saturday. But the trend will be improving quickly and by Sunday we should be back to a light variable airstream. 

Wave heights will also build over the weekend, from a broadening, strengthening easterly fetch in the northern Tasman Sea later this week in conjunction with a significant low pressure system developing between New Caledonia and Fiji. 

Whilst we’re not expecting a peak from this event until Monday, the early stages of this synoptic cycle will kick up a fun mid-range E’ly swell Saturday and early Sunday with 4-5ft sets at open beaches, and smaller waves at protected spots.  

The leading edge of the main swell is expected to reach the coast on Sunday afternoon, though we need to bear in mind that last light is a lot earlier this time of the year, so a session pegged for “the last few hours of the day” means we need to see some activity by 3pm or thereabouts. Had this situation been positioned in late December, then the chances of a solid late session from the new swell would be higher. 

Anyway, despite expecting a peak on Monday, there’s a good chance that exposed locations will push north of 6ft+ mid-late Sunday afternoon, and with light variable morning winds tending S’ly by this time, we should be in a good position for some impressive options at those locations that can handle a large, powerful east swell (sand permitting).  

Let’s  reassess the timing in Friday’s notes. 

Next week (July 1 onwards)

There’s a lot to get excited about with this tropical low - it’ll be broad, very strong, slow moving, and aimed in a really nice part of our swell window for quite a while. 

A new ridge is expected to build across the region on Monday, freshening SW tending S’ly then S/SE winds through the day so the points will offer the cleanest surf. At this stage I’m still pushing above model guidance (5-6ft) and expecting solid 8ft+ surf at exposed locations (smaller running down the points, and at sheltered locations), easing a little into Tuesday. 

However, to be honest - this swell will probably overpower most coasts so you'll probably have to do a lot of searching for anywhere handling the size. Large E'ly groundswells like this are not common, and many locations that can handle the size are suffering from unusual sand distributions. So, keep your expectations in check.

The ridge looks like it may not be very strong, and only short lived, so light winds are on the cards for Tuesday. Size should be down a foot or two from Monday (6ft+ open beaches early, easing later, smaller at sheltered spots). 

The models have shifted the long term position of this tropical system a little since Monday’s outlook, but it’s still going to remain a very good spot: slightly further east, and stationary, probably until the middle of the week at least. This should fluctuate wave heights in the 4-5ft, maybe 4-6ft range from Wednesday through Friday, easing a little into the weekend but likely to remain somewhere in the inconsistent 3ft+ range. 

The only other swell source is a short-lived, poorly aligned (though very powerful) low south of Tasmania on Sunday that may deliver some small S’ly swell to Northern NSW on Monday and Tuesday. It’ll be hard to spot beneath the E/NE groundswell though.

Wednesday is at risk for a developing S’ly airstream across most areas as a front pushes into the Tasman Sea and forms a low towards New Zealand; we may also pick up a short range S’ly swell from this pattern (late Wed/Thurs) but let’s take a closer look on Friday. 

Comments

SDW's picture
SDW's picture
SDW commented Wednesday, 26 Jun 2019 at 8:47pm

Hectic.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Wednesday, 26 Jun 2019 at 9:20pm

It's February yeah?

Mata's picture
Mata's picture
Mata commented Wednesday, 26 Jun 2019 at 10:31pm

That’s what I was thinking. Unusual system for mid-winter

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope commented Thursday, 27 Jun 2019 at 10:00am

And yet the other side of the country has a proper winter cold front extending all the way up the west coast

Ride on

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Thursday, 27 Jun 2019 at 6:50am

Distracting viewing on Multicam this morning.

waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet commented Thursday, 27 Jun 2019 at 8:06am

Which one?

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout commented Thursday, 27 Jun 2019 at 7:03am

Crazy amounts of rain the last few days after a dry Summer.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Thursday, 27 Jun 2019 at 8:57am

Nice to see the trade swell showing at Agnes Water.


Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout commented Thursday, 27 Jun 2019 at 9:55am

Readying my ski-hate posts in preparation...

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut commented Thursday, 27 Jun 2019 at 3:17pm

Checked from Burleigh to dbah today. Was super super shit.
Don't waste your time on the cams.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Thursday, 27 Jun 2019 at 5:13pm

Surf muscled up here this afternoon and the wind backed right off.

But instead of one of best pointbreaks starting to clear it's throat it was like 3 closed out beachies joined up. No lineup, no shape.

I'm putting a photo of one of the local points, unnamed but people will know where it is, not to BS or promote but to show what people in a froth about a super hyped up swell will be dealing with.
No bank, no shape, no lineup.

No doubt the Ballina bullshitt report will be claiming 7 or 8 out of 10 and "head to the Points, or protected bays".

Well, this is what you will find, except instead of being 3ft it'll be 6ft or bigger.

Might be better to save the fuel.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 27 Jun 2019 at 5:20pm

Car's packed and ready to roll Steve ;p Looks epic!

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 27 Jun 2019 at 5:53pm

Not a bad little left shoulder in that pic FR (brings up jet booking tab in browser)

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Thursday, 27 Jun 2019 at 6:05pm

funny you should say that, I watched guys going left at the Point this arvo.

man, it's a disgrace.

linez's picture
linez's picture
linez commented Thursday, 27 Jun 2019 at 6:49pm

Old photo, a red herring. It's pumping, really..

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Thursday, 27 Jun 2019 at 7:03pm

Spent a little time in the shed this arvo, sorting boards, sorting fins, legropes, wax etc, then I hopped in the chariot and drove a few kms north and south scoping the coast. The places that need sand look the goods, while the rock breaks just sat there dumb and empty and I silently chuckled to myself, "Next week, motherfuckers."

WendyM's picture
WendyM's picture
WendyM commented Thursday, 27 Jun 2019 at 9:05pm

Some time after that i went in there with a guy from WA i cant remember his name. that guy caught maybe 5 waves he struggled a bit with it. he said it was a bit tricky but he had fun and thanked me for taking him in. He said to me he had surfed waves that heavy before. He asked me do you know anyone in WA At that time the only person i surfed with from WA was keith spencer from gracetown i remember keith ripping his ear off at desert point going into town getting it stiched back on and back the next day.
Somehow I lost the first 2 parts of this post you didn't get them sorry it doesn't make sense i will re submit the whole story for you tommorow

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Thursday, 27 Jun 2019 at 5:21pm

One guy out Craig!

Nothing like that Splendour day you scored last year.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 27 Jun 2019 at 5:26pm

Mmm, looks like that was one of the better weekends of the past year! Which is sad.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Thursday, 27 Jun 2019 at 5:40pm

definitely one of the days of the winter last year.
And we haven't had anything even remotely as good as that since Oct last year.

very sad!

Luke02's picture
Luke02's picture
Luke02 commented Thursday, 27 Jun 2019 at 5:58pm

Far out Steve, over a year of that gurgle by the sounds of it. Wonder if house prices will start to fall soon ;)

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Thursday, 27 Jun 2019 at 7:11pm

Sucked in waxheads !

You wouldn’t have these problems if you were a bunch of landlubbers like my good self.

TV guide says it’s going to be on .....its on !!!! Not like your stinking ocean.

That sport.....it’s a disease.

And you all stink like seaweed.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Thursday, 27 Jun 2019 at 8:19pm

yeah fuck this coast, sick of closeouts: I'm going on a road trip to Agnes.

Fliplid's picture
Fliplid's picture
Fliplid commented Friday, 28 Jun 2019 at 7:10am

pack the mal, it's slower than it looks. And a helmet, the surf school will be out in force

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout commented Friday, 28 Jun 2019 at 11:51am

Right on cue...

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Friday, 28 Jun 2019 at 2:22pm

Agnes has such a Caba look to it

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Friday, 28 Jun 2019 at 2:26pm

Finally a bit of discoloured water thanks to the recent rains.

Swell is straight East and wonky. I suppose it could be good somewhere, doesn’t look like anything too amazing currently.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 28 Jun 2019 at 2:35pm

It's pretty much as perfect as it gets, synoptic setup wise, for the whole East Coast to be bathed in large and persistent easterly swell energy with fronts bringing offshore winds. Some spots won't handle the size but other than that, it's an amazing week of waves to come.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout commented Friday, 28 Jun 2019 at 2:53pm

Offshore?

捕鱼达人3