Incoming from the east

Stu Nettle
Swellnet Analysis

Just as the East Coast was settling into winter and a belated pattern of south swells, the Coral Sea has begun to twitch and tremble.

A system more reminiscent of late summer or autumn is currently taking shape with a large high pressure system enveloping the whole Tasman Sea and a broad field of easterly winds forecast to blow across its northern flank. It’s a classic trade wind set up, more often seen through the warmer months delivering mid-range east swell to SE QLD and Northern NSW.

Those coasts could’ve expected similar returns from this system, except that on Friday an easterly dip will form south of New Caledonia (see image below) which will increase the pressure gradient in the wind field and push core wind speeds above 40 knots.

The strongest winds are aimed towards SE QLD, which will be the biggest beneficiary (in terms of size) from this swell, however the increased wind speed is just one notable factor of what’s shaping up to be a favourable system.

The sheer size of the wind field - which will occupy the SE corner of the Coral Sea and stretch out into the South Pacific - and its distance off the coast will ensure that this is a widespread and extended swell event. Queensland and northern NSW will get the most size, but the swell will be felt right down the NSW coast and as far south as the east coast of Tasmania.

Between Friday and Sunday, the easterly dip will also retrograde - that is, move west towards the Australian mainland - thereby creating a captured fetch which will prolong the period of strong winds blowing on the growing swell and increase wave size on the coast

So, timing and size?

Being closer to the action, Queensland and Northern NSW will be the first to receive swell with the first flush of easterly trade swell beginning this weekend, coming in around 4ft, however by late Sunday the period will climb over 10 seconds and the swell will muscle up to approx 5-6ft. The size will steadily climb through Monday, peaking on Tuesday at around 6ft+, though it’d be wise to pace yourself as there’ll be a long wag in the swell’s tail as the swell drops slowly, with even Friday expecting 3-5ft waves on the Gold Coast.

Yep, a full working week of east swell. How long has it been since that's happened?

Coastlines further south down the NSW coast can expect a later arrival with the first tendrils of swell hitting Monday morning (earlier to the north, later to the south) and then a similar upwards trend peaking through Tuesday. The further south, the more north the swell will be. In Sydney it will strike from the east-northeast.

Monday will climb from 3ft to 5ft, with Tuesday and Wednesday coming in around 5-6ft, and then a slow taper through the back half of the week. With swell periods around 12 seconds, it’s likely that some exposed bommies will magnify the energy and come in a bit above those predictions.

And lastly, winds, because a good swell with bad winds isn't a good swell at all.

Queensland and Northern NSW will see south-east onshores through the weekend and early part of the swell, fortunately improving to light southerlies on Monday and Tuesday, so the outer points will be bumpy but inner points silky. Wednesday and Thursday are looking like a mix of NW and SW, before a return to light southerlies on Friday.

Sydney should see an early offshore land breeze on Monday morning, shifting towards the north through the day before a westerly change hits on Tuesday, blowing first north-west then settling into southwest through Wednesday and Thursday.

There'll be various takes on the above scenarios depending on where you're located on the coast, and keep in mind we're a week out so accuracy of the local wind forecast is still loose.

Check your forecast in the links below or keep track of changes in the comments.

Gold Coast Surf Forecast
Sydney Surf Forecast
Need a personalised surf forecast for your next trip, anywhere in the world? Check out Swellnet Traveller.

Comments

Bob Sacamano's picture
Bob Sacamano's picture
Bob Sacamano commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 1:59pm

I can feel a tickle in the throat already!

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 2:07pm

So for QLD the usual handful of points working with shit blown out beachies everywhere else. Oh well, at least it might move some of this straight sand around.

Lottolonglong's picture
Lottolonglong's picture
Lottolonglong commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 2:18pm

Thank fuck,all my studies finish this week!!!!!!

HORACE's picture
HORACE's picture
HORACE commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 2:49pm

Will this hit the Sunshine Coast as much as the Gold Coast?

Laurie McGinness's picture
Laurie McGinness's picture
Laurie McGinness commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 3:10pm

I remember a couple of epic long lasting north swells in mid-winter. Maybe early 80s.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 3:13pm

La Nina winter of 99 there were a lot of winter E swells.

deckstrus's picture
deckstrus's picture
deckstrus commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 3:54pm

Does anyone remember June, 2016 there was a rather consequential East swell :)

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 3:56pm

Black Nor'easter, this is not Deckstrus.

deckstrus's picture
deckstrus's picture
deckstrus commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 3:57pm

No, its not - but peeps are reminiscing about winter East swells (regardless of size) and that one was rather hard to forget imo!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 3:59pm

Yeah true, it was incredible!

waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet commented Wednesday, 26 Jun 2019 at 1:36pm

I recall that week fondly. It happened basically in my first 4 months of moving to the sunny coast - thought I struck gold at the time :p

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout commented Wednesday, 26 Jun 2019 at 5:06pm

It also came with 7 straight days of offshores. Surfed 9 hours that Monday across three local spots, all pumping. Those were the days.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 4:03pm

East and northeast swells aren't unknown in winter, and in fact some of our most famous swells - July 2001, June 2016 - came from the ENE, but winter swells are overwhelmingly from the south, borne out of the westerly wind track or various versions of Tasman Lows.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 4:32pm

Picked a good week to head to N NSW :-)

Scored the Black NE swell, too. Also by complete chance.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 5:00pm

keep your eyes out for the blue camo desert storm. and say hi.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 5:18pm

Will do!

Keep an eye out for... not sure yet. Picking up a 7'6 from Webby, and can only bring one other board back in my longer board bag. 6'2 Byrning Spears or 6'6 Russ Short. Might be the latter.

Mac Snaps's picture
Mac Snaps's picture
Mac Snaps commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 5:07pm

Come On Hughie, don't hold back.

eat-your-vegies's picture
eat-your-vegies's picture
eat-your-vegies commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 6:17pm

Mmmmm July 2001

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 6:21pm

shades of July 2001 for sure.

but with no sand on any of the SEQLD/North Coast Points this time.

groovie's picture
groovie's picture
groovie commented Thursday, 27 Jun 2019 at 7:02am

Here's hoping it all comes together. There has been a long right hand point laying dormant for too long around this coastline, just waiting for a solid east swell with southerlies. Fingers crossed!

Faunt Leroy's picture
Faunt Leroy's picture
Faunt Leroy commented Thursday, 27 Jun 2019 at 9:09am

Which point is that please sir?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 27 Jun 2019 at 9:14am

Upgrade, the low is forecast to be even stronger now and for quite a period.

Looking at 8-10ft surf on the North Coast when it peaks..

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Thursday, 27 Jun 2019 at 10:24am

yep and this one is going to be a total mystery bag.

I drove around yesterday and this morning checking every pointbreak within 50k's and they are all in total disarray. No sand or random wide banks with no shape at all.

I want to get the froth on for a July 2001 redux but simple observation and logic suggests this is going to be a whole lot of nothing.
Most prob hours and hours of paddling around out near the shipping lanes looking for corners.

edit: see what the ASCAT passes look like but from experience that little zone of storm force winds retrograding normally bumps the power up several notches as longer period swells hit front on.

batfink's picture
batfink's picture
batfink commented Friday, 28 Jun 2019 at 10:17am

That's an astounding synoptic for late June.

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono commented Monday, 1 Jul 2019 at 7:27am
thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 1 Jul 2019 at 8:20am

Sasha Stocker, jamming in the pocket yesterday arvo.?




thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 1 Jul 2019 at 9:24am

Wind's up this morning, but surf size is about the same as yesterday (buoy data suggests a smidge smaller). Long breaks between sets though.

??????????????

Westofthelake's picture
Westofthelake's picture
Westofthelake commented Monday, 1 Jul 2019 at 10:54am

Hectic at the Rocks this morning

Westofthelake's picture
Westofthelake's picture
Westofthelake commented Monday, 1 Jul 2019 at 10:56am

Lines, lines everywhere on the Kirra straight.

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono commented Monday, 1 Jul 2019 at 10:58am

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Sunday vibes at Snapper!

A post shared by Luis Rocha (@luisrochaphoto) on

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