Swell of the season inbound for Indonesia

Craig Brokensha
Swellnet Analysis

The Indian and Southern Oceans have been pumping out plenty of swell over the last couple of weeks with back to back groundswells for Indonesia and Western Australia. However, those swells will pale into comparison against a swell due next week, which will be the largest of the current winter season.

It was just under a year ago that a couple of unknown Russian and Brazilian surfers took on maxing Uluwatu with jetskis and tow boards. On the 25th of July, arguably the biggest footage we've seen of Uluwatu being surfed hit the internet, 15-20ft and breaking from the Bommie all the way towards Padang.

The coming swell looks to fall just short of that swell, but it'll light up every exposed coastline from the Maldives to Tasmania.

This coming weekend we'll see a broad node of the Long Wave Trough strengthen across the southern Indian Ocean (see image below), and this will in turn supercharge a developing polar frontal system forming in the Heard Island region.

A wide and expansive fetch of severe-gale 40-45kt W/SW winds will move on top an active sea state, generating a significant swell in its own right (30ft+ of open ocean swell) but on top of this we'll see storm-force 50-60kt winds adding the icing to a very bountiful cake.

With core winds being so strong, a long-period and extra-large groundswell event will be generated for Western Australian and eastern Indonesia, though north-west winds will limit surfing options on Australia's West Coast when it peaks on Wednesday. Margaret River is expected to reach 20-25ft with larger sets at offshore bommies, while the swell will continue north into Indonesia, arriving later Thursday and peaking Friday at 12-15ft across Uluwatu.

This swell will have a little more west in its direction compared to last July's event, which may help to get into some corners though it could just as easily hinder the swell from propagating up some of Indonesia's straits. Local knowledge will be key.

South Australia and Victoria will see large long-period surf from the storm, though with the westerly direction there'll be a large discrepancy in sizes. A bonus though will be a large blocking high sitting across the eastern part of the country, directing favourable north-northeast winds for those spots exposed to the incoming swell later week.

Need a personalised surf forecast for your next trip, anywhere in the world? Check out Swellnet Traveller.

Uluwatu 16 Day Forecast Graph
Uluwatu WAMs
Margaret River 16 Day Forecast Graph
Margaret River WAMs

Comments

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming commented Thursday, 20 Jun 2019 at 4:25pm

Sadly the last few weeks on social media i keep seeing pics from Mentawais and other areas of Sumatra and there always seems to be like 5 boats sitting on one break.

Seems like the crowds this year are worse than ever :( i really wish the government and resorts and even the charter boat operators would get together and put a cap on charter boat numbers.

Yes there is also more camps and resorts, but they dont sit anchored on a wave all day long and actually bring some benefit to the local community/governments.

joesydney's picture
joesydney's picture
joesydney commented Sunday, 23 Jun 2019 at 2:49pm

Just got back from a trip on Friday and was on the Barrenjoey. We scored heaps of waves and Greg the guide was awesome, knows his way like no other and dodged the other boats. Surfed a couple of places like Thunders Rags and Greenbush with very few to no people and also a couple of less known spots. It was probably the most consistent 2 weeks of swell I have had in the Mentawai.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Thursday, 20 Jun 2019 at 5:05pm

Hopefully the Big Wave Maniacs will be more onto it this swell...last year at Nias was good but to see those boys paddling Ulu at 15+ ft..YEH !

Old Gregg's picture
Old Gregg's picture
Old Gregg commented Thursday, 20 Jun 2019 at 5:48pm

I would respectfully partly disagree indo-dreaming. The proliferation of land camps means that if there's 5 dudes surfing a break and conditions turn on the speed boats can bomb the break with 80+ people in minutes. Rifles is a perfect example of this and is a circus mid season. I don't know what the answer is though

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming commented Thursday, 20 Jun 2019 at 7:02pm

Resort/camp boats come and go though, they have to go home for lunch and are more likely to do other activities especially now places have pools etc.

Boats though are aways sitting at a break only time they don't is at night when they find a safe anchorage or when moving elsewhere. (if winds go say strong southerly when trades push up and options limited they all sit at that one or two options)

They also have little to do outside of surfing, basically watching movies or drinking so every guest tends to spend more time in the water...sure its great from a get waves for $$$ perspective.

But for everyones overall enjoyment it sucks.

frog's picture
frog's picture
frog commented Friday, 21 Jun 2019 at 8:14pm

A few years ago at the Telos surfed pinnacles for days with just our boat. Now a resort there. A permanent crowd. Same trip at churches on one day there were 15 boats anchored in the channel. 13 were resort boats with 5 to 10 people on each as it was the only spot out of the wind.

It is basically an everyone problem.

Mount everest syndrome. Too many people wanting to go and too many people making money off people going.

Frogg

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming commented Sunday, 23 Jun 2019 at 8:51am

Got to say ive never seen anywhere near those numbers of the 5 resorts all but one take 8- 10 surfers and one resort has actually been shut for over a year.

More than three resort boats at one time is rare, more than two charter boats is rare, but it does happen.

Pinnacles is rarely crowded when its offshore there is quite a few other waves offshore, it a pretty average wave most days anyway.

Pinnacles have capacity to take a heap of guest, but they claim to limit surfer numbers to 10

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Thursday, 20 Jun 2019 at 5:53pm

the set-up at Macaronis seems better than a free for all.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Thursday, 20 Jun 2019 at 7:16pm

Give me a boat over a land camp any day of the week..

Way more freedom.

Sure you're not just shitty because you've invested in a camp IndoD?

Taprobane's picture
Taprobane's picture
Taprobane commented Friday, 21 Jun 2019 at 7:40am

I was interested to know with last years mega Ulu swell how it was at G-Land? Any footage?

Fraser G's picture
Fraser G's picture
Fraser G commented Friday, 21 Jun 2019 at 8:50am

Way to big for main reef Chickens,20 20s was the go.

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Friday, 21 Jun 2019 at 10:37am

how much size at those spots out of interest? have always wondered how much size they'd handle.

crip's picture
crip's picture
crip commented Friday, 21 Jun 2019 at 11:06pm

Yes, I've always wondered what it would look like on a REALLY big swell. And I wonder how big it would be down the point. I guess it would depend on the direction. I'd love to see footage. I've been there with 15ft faces and it was impressive but something like last year's swell would be incredible to see.

Fraser G's picture
Fraser G's picture
Fraser G commented Saturday, 22 Jun 2019 at 1:30pm

Surfed chickens at 6ft solid once May 18 2007 could handle bigger easy

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Friday, 21 Jun 2019 at 10:17am

My 4th (and last) visit to the Mentawais was May last year. May used to be a good month to go there with plenty of opportunity for early Winter swell action without the crowds being over the top.

Not anymore. The joint is packed from March to October and even outside those months it's busy due to (mostly) limited swell and everyone heading to the magnets.

You know it's time to look for somewhere else to go when you're sharing a line up with chicks from Belgium and blokes from Italy.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Friday, 21 Jun 2019 at 6:01pm

Not to mention the angry Victorians and a WA bloke who head-butts a piece of hardwood!!

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Bustard's picture
Bustard's picture
Bustard commented Friday, 21 Jun 2019 at 10:39am

Late August last year, HT's was 3-4ft, 5 boats + the happy campers. ..was a bit of a joke...but lucky was on a boat where the skip was happy to travel and we got some juice down south with only us.

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Friday, 21 Jun 2019 at 4:38pm

Early September last year was busy everyday
of my trip to Macaronis resort but if you can surf semi ok you'll still get plenty of waves, especially when it gets more solid. I managed to surf 2-3 times a day, ate and drank like a king and wow what a wave, sooo bloody consistent and it even handles upto 20knots of an onshore wind but somehow still lines up down the reef, nowhere else, have i ever witnessed that.

gordie's picture
gordie's picture
gordie commented Friday, 21 Jun 2019 at 4:49pm

Heading to Broome in a couple of days, is there any chance that coast will benefit from this swell?

Gordie

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 21 Jun 2019 at 4:51pm

Yeah look for long-period groundswell lines at Cable Beach on Friday.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Friday, 21 Jun 2019 at 5:04pm

Incoming tide.

Don’t park your car on the beach while you surf or else it’ll be a submarine by the time you get back.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Friday, 21 Jun 2019 at 5:02pm

Hire a boat and head out to Rowley Shoals....take a Gun
Shame its so far out at sea

gordie's picture
gordie's picture
gordie commented Friday, 21 Jun 2019 at 5:26pm

Cheers Craig. You bloody ripper!

Gordie

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free commented Friday, 21 Jun 2019 at 5:39pm

That system slingshots eh. Maybe a few biggies.

Airfares are of the scale though...peak season and holidays bad combo

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Friday, 21 Jun 2019 at 6:24pm

I'm flying out tonight so have been watching the charts closely this week. Looks like a great swell that will last a long time, but the forecast charts have been scaled back a bit from a few days ago. The low was predicted to hit 929hpa and the storm was massive in size. It's now in the high 930s.
At least I get a few days warm up. Last few trips, it's been falling out of the sky on Day 1!!!
The current buoy forecasts are really similar to the swell Damien Hobgood won the Southern Hemisphere wave of the winter prize. Uluwatu was 10-12ft + (4-5 times overhead) and salt water was apparently flowing half a block into Kuta on the high tide. Cave at high tide was treacherous.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Friday, 21 Jun 2019 at 6:29pm

What are you packing, VL? Or have you got boards there?

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Saturday, 22 Jun 2019 at 7:36am

Biggest board is a 7'0". I might have to pretend to like someone with a spare 8 footer.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Mango Carafino's picture
Mango Carafino's picture
Mango Carafino commented Sunday, 23 Jun 2019 at 12:29pm

You appear to be the kind of guy I prefer to have on my side in a bar room brawl. The one who says "if you mess with him your gonna have to mess with me".

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 24 Jun 2019 at 10:17am

Sorry Mango, I'm a lover not a fighter. If a bar room brawl looked like kicking off, I'd go into Kofi Annan UN peace maker mode. No fighting, but by the end of the night we'd all up drinking to each other's health and drunkenly announcing we're all "buddies for life".

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Mango Carafino's picture
Mango Carafino's picture
Mango Carafino commented Monday, 24 Jun 2019 at 2:14pm

Quite the diplomate for such gun pointing user image. The edgy side of me says your either similar to the little man behind the curtain in the wizard of oz, presenting a fake strong man image, a coward or with the talent to go now and see Trump in order to resolve the Iran USA pending war standoff. You pick what you are lover boy, I am just here for the online entertainment. Life is too short and fast for anything less than real. BTW, I never kiss ass or abandon my mate in bar room brawl and I am still one of the best international playboys out there. However I do appreciate the reply.

Fraser G's picture
Fraser G's picture
Fraser G commented Saturday, 22 Jun 2019 at 1:37pm

Not as south as Hobgood swell which was below 200°

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 24 Jun 2019 at 11:40am

Timed your run perfectly with the current Vicco outlook.

Spuddups's picture
Spuddups's picture
Spuddups commented Saturday, 22 Jun 2019 at 7:37am

A mate of mine is up in Gnaraloo for the next couple of weeks. Hope he has a big board.

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey commented Saturday, 22 Jun 2019 at 9:26am

Or just plenty of coin for Fuel .

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

Clam's picture
Clam's picture
Clam commented Saturday, 22 Jun 2019 at 10:02pm

Chickens at 8ft .
800m rides
90sec rides
Super fast hard to make

Clam's picture
Clam's picture
Clam commented Saturday, 22 Jun 2019 at 10:03pm

*Not this swell tho

Mango Carafino's picture
Mango Carafino's picture
Mango Carafino commented Sunday, 23 Jun 2019 at 12:26pm

Rumors have confirmed that Andrey Ovchinnikov a.k.a. Dolphin, is gearing up to surf it again but this time with former Maui Jaws tow surfer and founder of the original hydrofoil kiteboard, Mango Carafino, oh wait a minute that's me. Amazing how social media allows me to toot my own horn, gotta love that and love one of the truest real deal surf websites on the net, SWELLNET.COM.
To all the supporter's and player haters. Wish us luck. You only live once and you live it faster than you can ever imagine.

joesydney's picture
joesydney's picture
joesydney commented Sunday, 23 Jun 2019 at 3:00pm

In the words of Teddy "speak softly and carry a big stick, you will go a long way"

I'm supporting Ulus this time around......

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Sunday, 23 Jun 2019 at 7:27pm

@mango, Lol

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Sunday, 23 Jun 2019 at 5:08pm

Not just Indo...

The swell will peak across the Indonesian archipelago this Thursday. Here's the Chopes forecast from this Thursday onwards:

kookfactor's picture
kookfactor's picture
kookfactor commented Monday, 24 Jun 2019 at 9:28am

12ft here in SWWA and building this morning.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 24 Jun 2019 at 9:39am

And this swell isn't even related. A totally seperate one.

Just an update, the core winds don't look to reach 50kt and size wise it looks like this swell will come in around 10-12ft.

A Cripple's picture
A Cripple's picture
A Cripple commented Monday, 24 Jun 2019 at 11:06am

Hey Craig, why no regular Indonesian forecaster notes this year?

The last one was in November last year???

If 6 was 9,
I would be fine.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 24 Jun 2019 at 11:09am
Clam's picture
Clam's picture
Clam commented Monday, 24 Jun 2019 at 11:38am

Naturaliste buoy Decreasing at today.
http://www.srosurf.com/naturalistebuoy.html

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 24 Jun 2019 at 11:39am

Yep and mid-period energy.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Monday, 24 Jun 2019 at 7:23pm

Nice late arvo sessions going down on the Bukit atm..

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Saturday, 29 Jun 2019 at 3:38pm

Solid!

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

@kayuvianna putting the pedal to the metal on a bomb yesterday @mendodornellas / @sebastianrojasphoto

A post shared by Bali Belly (@balibelly) on

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Saturday, 29 Jun 2019 at 4:48pm

Oh my god.
Insert heart emoji etc etc
That’s fucked up

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Saturday, 29 Jun 2019 at 4:30pm

dgapone insta - Taken out by your own ski rope.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Saturday, 29 Jun 2019 at 4:54pm

Why they towing 8ft Uluwatu?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Saturday, 29 Jun 2019 at 4:55pm

That was very lame..

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Saturday, 29 Jun 2019 at 4:56pm

Yes ..Tai Budda and Longbottom

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Sunday, 30 Jun 2019 at 6:13pm

Not this swell but from June 11th- ashley bickerton insta
60 yrs old setting a nice line into a nice Balangan tube...

捕鱼达人3